Unicredit: Forecast envisages RON 130.1 bn in GDP in 2011

'We envisage Romania's economic growth to come back, namely we expect it to go up 1.7 percent compared to a 1.3 percent contraction, in 2010,' the Bank's economist-in-chief Rozalia Pal said. Likewise, the Bank sees the country's population to number 21.3 million dwellers, this year, instead of 21.4 million inhabitants, in 2010.The GDP per inhabitant is expected to 6.113 euros in 2011, compared to 5.704 euros in 2010. Moreover, the unemployment rate is forecast to drop to 6.5 percent this year vs. 7.6 percent in 2010.

The report also shows the exports to grow with 11 percent, and the imports with 10.8 percent. The budget deficit is expected to attain - 5 percent of the GDP, and the public growth to reach 38.1 percent of the GDP. The exchange rate is expected to amount to 4.2 lei for 1 euro, in 2011, while it is expected to be worth 4.05 lei per euro, in 2012.

The interest rate is believed to reach 6.25 percent by end 2011, and 5.5 percent in 2012. 'The inflation is expected to exceed by 4.7 percent the Romanian National Bank (BNR) target of 3+/-1 percent, in 2011. The VAT growth worth 5 percent in July 2010 is expected to disappear from inflation, and no longer put pressure on the much lower current level,' Pal stressed.