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XTB: Questions about the solid economic growth in Romania

Romania has probably gone out of the recession at the end of Q1, but its coming back is not perceived by the majority of the Romanians.

There are signs regarding a possible increase of the appetite for loans, but the solid economic growth is still to be expected, the X-Trade Brokers analysts say.

The data estimated by the National Commission of Prognosis ( CNP) for Q1 2011 show an increase of 0.5% against the last quarter of 2010 and 1.3% against the first quarter of 2010, which would mean the going out of recession.

The Wall-Street cronometer shows how much time there is up to the moment Romania goest out of recession. The industry stays the engine of the economy, showing an advance of 12.7% in February. 2011 brought a trend of leu strengthening, and the economy of the zero zone could be stopped by the increase in interest, so that, in order to have a solid coming back, it is necessary that other sectors take the lead.

« The increase of the demand for loans in March for the second month in a row could be a sign that the Romanians are more open for consumption. A part of the requests could be linked to the refinancing of some loans in better conditions, but the signal is still positive » Victor Safta, the manager of the Romanian branch of X-Trade Brokers said.

Although the economic growth in two successive quarters technically defines the coming out of recession, this will not have rapid and strong effects for most of the Romanians. The defrosting of the work market has just started, and the coming back of trust takes time, after the shock brought about by the financial crisis, the report of the brokerage house shows.

For a healthy increase, which to be reflected in the living standard for a long term, Romania needs to improve the efficiency of the infrastructure and the public apparatus.

« Collections for the state budget increased,but the deficit is still at high levels. Romania has no money to waste. The European funds and the public resources must be used efficiently and intelligently, but a new growth cycle does not need to rely on euphoric consumption supported by foreign financing. The economy will improve gradually, but there are still risks regarding the slowing down of European economy and the increase of raw materials prices. The Romanians have to avoid the temptation of excessive optimism : going into a solid growth is still to be expected » Victor Safta said.

The Romanian economy is ready for a post-crisis period, but the macro landscape is marked by risks and uncertainties.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: still economy increase romania economic growth solid

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