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The way the ING analysts see the evolution of the exchange rate for the following months

The exchange rate for foreign currency could fluctuate around 4.05 lei/euro in May, and in June the rate could be 4-4.05 lei/euro, the appreciation of the national currency on short term being due to the drop in commercial deficit, according to an ING analysis, quoted by Mediafax.

The current account of the payment balance had in the first two months of this year a deficit of 44 million euro, 17 times smaller than the level of 747 million ueor of the same period of 2010, due to the reduction of the deficit of the commercial balance and the increase of the current transfers exceed, according to the data presented last week by the National Bank of Romania (BNR).

In the context of the dynamics of foreign commerce and the perspectives of economic growth, the ING analysts revised their estimates regarding the commercial balance of this year, anticipating the drop of deficit. The main risk for this scenario is the coming back of domestic demand or a tougher impact of the correlation expected as regards the demand on the part of the German economy. The adjustment of the commercial deficit is positive for the leu.

« In an approach on a short term, we anticipate that the foreign currency exchange rate could fluctuate around the level of 4.05 lei/euro in May and we would not exclude the evolution of the rate between 4.-4.05 lei/euro for June » the ING analysis said.

However, for the second half of this year, the bank anticipates that the probable scenario is the depreciation of the leu against the euro, as the inflation drops and the dynamics of exports slows down.

BNR published on Thursday the key rate of 4.0906 lei/euro up by 0.48 bani against the level of Wednesday, but with 4.5% lower than the level of last year, of 4.2848 lei/euro. The official rate of Wednesday, of 4.0858 lei/euro was the minimum of March 2010.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: deficit ing euro exchange bnr

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