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Which is the prognosis for inflation announced by BNR?

The BNR board will approve in the meeting for monetary policy on Tuesday the report on inflation, to be presented at the end of the week.

The central bank will announce a new prognosis regarding the annual rate of inflation for the end of 2011. The economists consider the prognosis for inflation as being revised upwards up to 4.5-5%.

BNR will revise upwards the prognosis of inflation for the end of this year, from 3.6% as it was announced in February but Adrian Vasilescu the BNR governor counsellor, considers that the new estimate of the central bank will not get over 5%. The prognosis of the analysts is higher.

« We as BNR will have in May a new prognosis of inflation, I don't know how much, but I don't think it will be higher than 5% for the end of the year. The increase against the present prognosis, of 3.6% takes place as there are special conditions this year, when the oil price goes up, the price of food goes up and when there are so many troubles and turmoil », Adrian Vasilescu said last month.

The BNR governor counsellor mentioned that inflation in Romania is atypical and has two major elements, one structural one and one emotional.

Annual inflation went up to 8% in March, after the food prices went up, especially vegetables and fruit. The expectations of analysts are not positive and indicate a growing inflation by the middle of 2011.

The annual rate of inflation went over the level of 8% in March, being at 8.01%. Prices for consumption goods went up, on average, by 0.6% in March 2011 as compared to the previous month, according to the data published by the National Institute for Statistics. The prices of food increased in March by 1.17% while the advance of non-food prices was of 0.51% and the services got cheaper by 0.34%.

A drop in inflation this year down to 3.6% as it was expected by BNR, is impossible, and this fact was shown by Mugur Isarescu, the BNR governor. The fight with inflation will represent the main task of BNR this year, in the context where inflationist pressure accentuated. The economists consider that the inflation prognosis could be revised upwards up to 4.5-5% for the end of this year. The analysts who are pessimistic consider that a realistic prognosis for the end of the year could be 5% - 5.5%. BNR will present the report on inflation at the end of this week, in a press conference, occasion on which they will also announce the new inflation prognosis. The central bank operated an upwards revision of the inflation prognosis for the end of 2011, the growth being from 3.4% to 3.6%.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: prognosis inflation bnr

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