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CNP estimates inflation rate at year-end at 4.8%

The National Commission of Prognosis (CNP) estimates the inflation rate at the year-end (December 2010-December 2011) at 4.8 percent, according to the spring prognosis released on Friday on the institution website.

In the autumn prognosis, released in November 2010, CNP estimated a 3.2 percent December-December inflation rate.For 2011, the BNR projection regarding the inflation rate at the year-end stands at 5.1 percent.Moreover, CNP has revised upwards the prognosis on the annual average inflation rate, from 5.3 percent to 6.5 percent.

CNP expecting Romania's foreign trade deficit to decline to 9.4 billion euros in 2011

The FOB-CIF trade deficit of Romania should reach 9.4 billion euro in 2001, down 1.1 percent from 2010, according to the spring medium-term projections of the National Commission of Prognosis (CNP) released on Friday.FOB exports should stand at 42.9 billion euros in 2011, up 15.1 percent from 2010, while CIF imports should reach 52.3 billion euros, up 11.8 percent from the similar period of the year before.The FOB-CIF trade deficit with the European Union should decline 2.1 percent in 2011 from 2010, to 6.8 billion euros, while the extra-community trade deficit should increase by 1.5 percent from 2010, to 2.5 billion euros.

CNP data indicate that the foreign trade deficit in 2012 should be the same as in 2011, while in 2013 it should stand at 9.45 billion euros, up 0.6 percent from 2012. The FOB-CIF trade deficit is projected at 9.84 billion euros for 2014, up 4.1 percent year-over-year.The FOB-CIF trade deficit in the first quarter of 2011 exceeded RON 5.959 billion (nearly 1.411 billion euros), down RON 2.5 billion (642.2 million euros) from the similar period of 2010, according to data released on Tuesday by the National Statistics Institute (INS).

FOB exports in the first three months of 2011 stood at RON 46.649 billion (11.016 billion euros), while CIF imports exceeded RON 52 billion (12.427 billion euros). Compared with the first quarter of 2010, exports were up 43.2 percent when stated in the local currency, the leu (RON), and 39.4 percent when stated in euros, while imports were up 28.2 percent when stated in RON and 24.8 percent when stated in euros.The value of Romania's intra-community exchanges January-March 2011 stood at RON 33.611 billion (7.962 billion euros) in terms of expeditions and RON 37.256 billion (8.828 billion euros) in terms of acquisitions, making up 72.1 percent of Romania's total exports and 70.8 percent of Romania's total imports.

Real wages to decline 0.4pct in 2011

The National Commission of Prognosis (CNP) is expecting real wages in Romania to decline 0.4 percent in 2011 from 2010, according to its spring projections posted on its website. In its November 2010 projections, CNP was expecting a 0.4-percent increase in real wages.The CNP has upwardly adjusted its projections of the average gross and net wage income, from RON 2,022 to RON 2,026 and from RON 1,472 to RON 1,478, respectively.The rise in the average gross wages should be 6.1 percent, an improvement from last autumn's 5.9 percent predicted rise. The rise in the average net wages should be 6.1 percent, compared with 5.7 percent, as anticipated last autumn.

CNP revises upwards, to 4pct, GDP growth forecast for 2012

The National Commission of Prognosis / CNP / has kept the projection of economic growth, of 1.5 percent, for 2011, but revised upwards, from 3.9 percent to 4 percent, its economic growth forecast for 2012, according to the spring prognosis published on the website of this institution. For the years 2013 and 2014, CNP has maintained the growth projection of 4.5 percent and 4.7 percent respectively. Also the projection on final consumption growth was revised upwards for 2012 compared to 2011, from 3.45 percent to 3.5 percent. Estimation on a consumption growth of 1.3 percent was maintained for 2011.

CNP modifies down leu/euro exchange rate prognosis for 2011-end

The National Commission of Prognosis (CNP) has modified down the prognosis on the leu/euro exchange rate at the end of 2011, estimating a 4.18 lei/euro exchange rate in the spring medium-term prognosis 2011-2014.In the previous prognosis, in autumn, CNP had estimated a 4.21 lei/euro exchange rate.For the next three years, CNP has maintained the prognosis on the leu/euro exchange rate, that is 4.18 lei/euro in 2012, 4.16 lei/euro in 2013 and 4.13 lei/euro in 2014. As far as the leu/dollar exchange rate is concerned, CNP has modified down the estimations for 2011 and the next three years to 3.07 lei/dollar in 2011 and 2012 (from the autumn estimation of 3.21 lei/dollar, namely 3.19 lei/dollar) 3.06 lei/dollar in 2013 (from 3.18 lei/dollar previously estimated) and 3.04 lei/dollar in 2014 (from 3.15 lei/dollar previously estimated).

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: percent euros prognosis billion euro should while growth dollar exchange wages deficit commission national according spring inflation trade bnr

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