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Exports and further build-up of inventories, key drivers of 1Q11 economic growth

The structure of 1Q11 economic growth released this morning by the National Institute of Statistics brought little news. Real GDP was revised slightly upwards to +0.7% q/q (seasonally-adjusted data) and +1.7% y/y and was supported again by net exports and change in inventories.

Households consumption remained depressed (-0.5% q/q) as the tough fiscal consolidation package implemented in the summer of 2010 continued to weigh pretty heavily on gross disposable income. Government consumption was particularly weak and fell by 6.2% q/q in line with a decrease in the number of public employees. Gross fixed capital formation declined by 2% q/q but change in inventories made a strong positive contribution to the economic growth. Exports were again faster than imports (+10.6% q/q as compared to +7.3% q/q) as companies in manufacturing took the full advantage of the strong economic growth in Eurozone but also in emerging markets outside the EU.

We maintain our scenario regarding an economic growth of around 2% in 2011. Exports along with a possible revival of public investments in infrastructure and higher private investments in new production facilities in manufacturing in 2H11 could be key drivers. Households consumption is likely to gain speed only in 2012. At the same time, we foresee a flat key rate at 6.25% throughout 2011 and a gradual tightening of the monetary policy next year.

Sursa: http://www.bcr.ro

Tags: growth economic inventories exports

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