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ING reduces the estimate for inflation

ING reduced the estimate regarding inflation at the end of this year from 6.1% to 4.7% after the unexpectedly low level of indicator in June, but as a result of the ANRE decision to keep prices for gas for household consumers and due to a better agricultural year.

Consumption prices dropped by 0.3% in June, against May, on the basis of food price decrease, for the first date over the last two years. The annual rate of inflation dropped in June at 7.93% from 8.41% in the previous month.

Besides higher inflation in June, ING anticipated an increase of 10% of regulated prices for gas during this year, which could be translated in a plus of 0.4 percentage points for inflation at the end of 2011.

At the same time, the bank's analysts included higher prices in the domain of food, the prognosis being contradicted by the good agricultural year, which determined them to reduce for the second time the estimates regarding the price of food.

The new prognosis of 4.7% includes the impact estimated of eliminating subsidies for heating in the autumn of this year. If subsidies are not eliminated, inflation could be 4.2% at the end of last year, ING says.

For July, ING anticipates that inflation will drop at 5.2% after the elimination of the effect of VAT increase the same month of last year. Against June, prices will be kept stable. Due to very good agricultural production, especially for vegetables, but as well as due to the basic effects, ING anticipates that inflation will drop at a minimum of 3.3% in March 2012 before going up before the end of future year at 4.8%.

Romania recorded the most reduced rate of inflation in March 2007, of 3.7% due to a good agricultural year in 2006 and the appreciation of the leu against the euro.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: inflation ing prices euro

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