Stiri	Stiri afaceri	Stiri companii	Evenimente de afaceri

Citi analysis: Romania is less vulnerable to the crisis in the Euro zone

Although Romania is among the most exposed ten emerging countries to the crisis in the euro zone, out of 22 of countries included in the 'Indicator of contagion' made by the analysts of the American bank Citigroup, it is less vulnerable than other EU states, such as Hungary, the Czech Republic or Poland, Mediafax informs.

The most exposed in Hungary, followed by the Czech Republic, Poland, Turkey, South Africa, Brasil and Mexico, and Romania is eigth, followed by India and Egypte. The last positions depending on the vulnerability to crisis are occupied by China and Russia.

Investors are still worried by three main channels of contagion through which the crisis could reach emerging Europe, the debt/.state financing, the banking sector and the real economy/commerce, according to the blog of the British daily Financial Times. From the perspective of debt/financing, emerging Europe does not have a solvency crisis, as many states in the euro zone, with the exception of Hungary, the debts are lower than in the euro zone, at 40% of the GDP. This level is half against the EU and much under 145% of GDP in Greece.

Even if the solvency of governments in the region is not discussed, the high necessary of foreign financing means that the region is vulnerable to a new crisis of cash. Emerging Europe is, probably, the most vulnerable through economy/commerce. The relatively solid recovery of the economies in emerging Europe against the countries in the West was, almost totally, supported by the coming back of exports to the developed states of Europe, especially Germany, and the improvement of domestic demand.

The biggest danger comes from the possibility to extend the crisis in the euro zone to the banking sector in the region, situation which could finally lead emerging Europe back into recession, and in an extreme situation to need new financial help from the IMF, the analysts warn.

The indicator made by Citigroup tries to show an image about vulnerability which could appera if the contagion in the euro zone crisis is advanced, according to the blog of Financial Times.

The indicator is made up of indicators for each of the contagion types mentioned above: the level of liabilities to European banks ( reported to reserves), the balance between debt and GDP, the contribution of exports to the euro zone to the economic growth. Citigroup adds two new indicators which could become relevant in the context of a general decline of the appetite for risk: the foreign financing necessary of each country and the share in GDP of the capital inflow, excluding foreign direct investment.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: emerging europe euro crisis vulnerable romania

Articole similare