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Liviu Voinea (GEA): An economic growth of 3.5-4% in 2012 can be achieved only by consumption growth

The executive manager of the Applied Economy Group (GEA) Liviu Voinea considers that economic growth of 3.5 – 4% in 2012 according to the estimates of IMF is possible only by increase of consumption.

'The economic growth of 1.5% estimated for 2011 comes after a drop of 1.2% in 2010 which means we will be in the situation at the end of 2009 and any growth in 2012, of 3.5- 4% cannot come unless by consumption. Such economic growth can be made only by consumption growth and the growth of consumption can be made only through electoral measures' Liviu Voinea said on Monday for Agerpres.

On the other hand, Voinea wonders what the reform in Romania was if the only thing is VAT increase and budgetary salaries cut.

'In the case of budgetary salary increase we ask: what was the reform in Romania? If the reform is the VAT increase and salaries cuts what is left after the salaries are brought the previous level ? Practically, we played with inflation, we ate inflation out of real salaries and we got time while using the money from IMF. We borrowed and we tripled the debt. Even if the salaries go back to the previous level it won't be the same, as 10 million ROL in 2010 meant one thing and 10 million ROL in 2012 is a completely different matter. It is the same money, but inflation went up to 15% for two years' Voinea said.

The economic analyst considers that the structural reforms in key domains in Romania did not take place and everything which was done were the reforms of monetary nature.

'I think structural reforms had to take place in agriculture, energy and health, reforms which did not take place in Romania. There were some of monetary nature or budgetary nature, including the reform of state-owned companies' the executive manager of GEA said.

The head of IMF mission to Romania, Jeffrey Franks showed on Monday that Romania will record economic growth of 1.5% in 2011 and 3.5- 4% in 2012.This was the second mission of evaluation in the stand-by agreement precautionary type signed by the international financial organisms with our country.

The stand-by agreement between Romania and IMF started on 31 March 2011 and it a precautionary type, going up to 3.1 billion DST, 3.6 billion euro, representing approximately 300% of the quota Romania has with IMF.

The new agreement with IMF will last for 24 months, to be undertaken as the same time with a new precautionary agreement with the EU worth 1.4 billion euro, as well as a loan of 0.4 billion euro from the World Bank.

IMF gave Romania two parts, of the new agreement worth 67 million euro and 480 million euro respectively.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: growth salaries agreement euro romania consumption voinea economic liviu