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Lucian Angel, BCR: We shall revise inflation prognosis at 4 - 5%

The Romanian Commercial Bank (BCR) decided to revise slightly down the inflation prognosis for the end of the year from 5.1 - 5.2 percent to 4 - 5 percent, Chief Economist with BCR Lucian Angel told Agerpres.

'The prices for vegetables have exceeded our expectations [in terms of decline] and therefore we shall also revise our inflation prognosis under 5 percent, between 4 and 5 percent, we have not a final figure yet. It is clear that inflation will decrease. I believe that without removing the heating subsidies and with a good agricultural year, because I expect to see more declining months, the Central Bank could have met the inflation target by a narrow margin [3 percent plus/minus one percentage point],' Anghel said.

According to him, 37 percent of the consumption basket in Romania consists of vegetables and fruit. As these products have volatile prices, the volatility in terms of inflation is also higher.'It looks like this is a good agricultural year and it is a good sign for the Gross Domestic Product, too' the BCR official added.

Lending to increase by one digit and below 4.2 lei / euro rate, in Q4

Lending will increase by one digit in the last quarter of this year and the exchange rate will be below 4.2 lei / euro, estimated Lucian Anghel, Chief economist of the Romanian Commercial Bank (BCR).

'I see slightly better lending operations than in previous quarters. That is, theoretically, a slight improvement to be registered each quarter, as infrastructure projects are beginning to catch speed, the same as the economy. I expect the second half to be slightly better than the first semester. But I do not think we will reach a double-digit pace of lending. Somewhere ....in the middle. I would not give a figure. Anyway, it will be one digit', Lucian Anghel told AGERPRES.

Regarding the national currency evolution, the BCR official emphasized that the economy will recover, and if it complies with the IMF agreement, the currency should be stronger. 'For now, I am counting on the fact that the economy will improve nonetheless, and that we came out of recession healthier than we got in terms of macro-economic fundamentals. I think that leul rate should go below 4.2 lei / euro, ' said BCR economist.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: bcr inflation percent revise prognosis lucian euro

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