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Raiffeisen reduces estimate of GDP increase in 2012

Raiffeisen maintains the prognosis of Romania's economic growth at 1.5% for this year, but reviewed the estimate concerning the GDP advance for next year from 3.5 to 2.7% when Central and East European countries are feeling the effects of slower activities at world level.

'In Romania, economic activities slowed down in the second quarter. Industrial output dropped in the last months, while confidence in industry dropped because of the small number of orders,' a Raiffeisen analysis quoted by Mediafax shows.

In conditions in which recent economic data in the euro area and the US feed fears about a new recessions and Romania's exports to the euro area represent 60% of total, Raiffeisen reviewed on the drop estimates about GDP increases in 2012.

The bank notes that domestic demand and investments will not be able to anticipate a GDP advance of 2.5% for both years.Romania's government expects this year an economic increase of 1.5% and an advance of 3.7% in 2012.

Raiffeisen has also reviewed the estimate about the evolution of the national currency against euro, anticipating an average rate of 4.21 units per euro this year, compared to the June estimate of 4.17 units per euro.

An average rate of 4.19 lei per euro is expected in 2012, compared to the previous estimate of 4.08 lei/euro.

Raiffeisen reviewed on the drop the prognosis about the GDP of Central and Eastern Europe. For Central Europe the estimate was reduced to 3.2% for this year and 2.7% in 2012, from 3.3% and 3.7%.

Of Central European countries, Hungary has the most disappointing evolution of GDP in the first semester and Raiffeisen reduced its estimate about economic growth to 2% this year and 1.5% in 2012.

Raiffeisen also reduced the prognosis for 2012 for Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia because of the difficult perspective of the main commercial partners in the euro area. For the Czech republic, an economic advance if 1,9% is expected, for Poland 3.4% and for Slovakia 3%.

South Eastern Europe, an area including Romania and Bulgaria, will have a GDP increase of 1.8% this year and 2.5% in 2012, compared to previous estimates of 1.9% and 4.5%.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: raiffeisen estimate about euro increase economic

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