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Valentin Lazea, BNR: The economic increase of next year could be revised from 3.5-4% to 2.5%

The estimate for economic growth for next year, at present 3.5 – 4% could be significantly revised downwards at 2.5% taking into consideration the international context, stated the head-economist of BNR Valentin Lazea, quoted by Mediafax.

'The perspectives of economic growth could necessitate revision downwards, taking into consideration the international context and the loss of 'connection' of exports, towards 2.5% in 2012' Lazea said, present on Saturday in Mamaia at the BCR Conference.

He wanted to mention that these opinions are personal and they do not stand for BNR position.

After the first six months, the exports got to 25.8 billion euro, being 25.5 % higher than those of the same period of last year, but the growth rhythm went down approximately 15 percentage points against the data at the end of the first quarter.

Internationally, several economists and politicians mentioned the fact that the world economy slows down its growth rhythm, while the others speak about recession again.For this year, the authorities estmate that the advance of economy will be at about 1.5%. During the last visit of the IMF delegation for the evaluation of the agreement with Romania, the prognosis for economic growth for next year was revised downwards by 0.2 percentage points , from 3.9% to 3.7%.

The budgetary deficit will overpass the 3% target of the GDP in 2012, even in the optimistic scenario

Valentin Lazea said that the budgetary deficit will be over the 3% target of the GDP next year according to the European methodology of calculus, even in an optimistic scenario where the economic growth will be 4%.

'First, we should take into consideration that, according to the estimates of the European Commission and the European Central Bank, the budgetary deficit in ESA terms will be at about 3.6% of GDP in 2012, even in the optimistic situation of an economic growth of 4%' he showed.

The head economist added that, if the unrest of the markets on the financial markets is kept, this could transfer on the domestic market, which could make very expensive the financing of the deficit and could increase the governmental expenditure with interest.

'For all these reasons, the government should identify supplementary measures to reduce the budgetary deficit by almost one percentage of GDP' Lazea said.

The BNR official stated that the best ' candidate' for this are the interest on property which at present collects to the budget only 0.4% of GDP and whose tripling would bring us in line with other countries in Central and Eastern Europe.

According to the fiscal-budgetary strategy approved by the government, the budgetary deficit in European methodology is meant to get down at 4.4% of GDP this year, at 3% of GDP in 2012, at 2.5% of GDP in 2013 and 2.2% of GDP in 2014 respectively.

' Praiseworthy, from the perspective of external perception is the government's intention not to relax the salary policy and that referring to pensions in the next three years despite the electoral calendar. However, the government has to be prepared to do more, the so-called Plan B in the case of risks' Lazea said.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: growth budgetary deficit valentin revised lazea could economic bnr bcr euro