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Foreign direct investment, at its minimum of the last 9 years

In July, foreign direct investment in Romania was worth 90 million euro, the total of the first 7 months reaching 1.1 billion euro, dropping by 30% against the same period of last year and by 58% against 2009.

But at the same time, BNR rectified upwards the total of foreign investments made in January-July 2010 from 1.3 to 1.6 billion euro. If over the last 5 months of 2011 the decreasing rhthym is kept, investment will have a total of 1.5 billion euro, the most reduced level of 2003 to now.As regards the stock of foreign investment, it is worth 53.7 billion euro at the end of June, 2,500 euro/inhabitant.

Poland – over the first six months of 2011, foreign direct investment had a total of 3.6 billion euro, dropping by 16% against q1.10. If the rhythm keeps to the end of the year, in 2011 the investment will be 5.7 billion euro or 150 euro/inhabitant, the double of Romania. The stock of foreign investment in Poland overpasses 135 billion euro, 3,500 /capital respectively.

The Czech Republic – investment went down by 22% from 3.2 billion euro in quarter 1,10 to 2.5 billion – which is an annual value of over 350 euro/capita. According to Eurostat, at the end of 2009, the stock of foreign direct investment was 85 billion euro, or 8,000 euro/capita ( a similar value to that of Germany).

Hungary – the National Bank of Hungary published data only for Q1.11 and the figures show that foreign investment was zero, which means that outflow was equal of inflow. Last year, the investments were equal to 1.1 billion euro, 113 euro/capita respectively, and the total stock of investment was over 60 billion euro in 2009 or 6,000 euro/capita.

Bulgaria – similarly to Hungary, net investment was equal to zero in Q1.11. Between 2006 – 2008 Bulgaria drew a big volume of foreign investment, of over 750 euro/capital annually, the record of Romania being 423 euro in 2008. The stock of investment is approximately 4,700 euro/inhabitant.

At least, at this moment, the Romanian capital is insufficiently developed to generate a sustainable economic growth for long term, and the significant reduction of foreign investment will produce negative effects on the growth rhythm of GDP in the next years.

Moreover, it is unlikely that investment grows abruptly from one year to the other, and to come back to a level acceptable enough ( at least 5 billion euro annually) it will be necessary at least 3-4 years, with the condition that in 2012 we have a slowing down of the economic growth rhythm in developed countries, not a new recession.

With a value of foreign investment /capital of 2,500 euro, the sum with 30% less than that of Poland, half as that of Hungary, and a third as that of the Czech Republic we cannot hope to reach these countries in a reasonable period of time, especially as the conditions say, by comparison to the Romanian companies, the Polish, Hungarian or Czech companies invest abroad, looking for potential for growth on other markets.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: euro investment billion foreign stock direct years total bnr

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