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UniCredit sees growth of 2.5 % in 2012

UniCredit Tiriac Bank revised dropping the estimate of growth for the Romanian economy in 2012, from 3.5% to 2.5% as the foreign demand is weak, but they count on the gradual coming back of economies in the euro zone next year, after stopping their engines in the  second quarter of 2011.

Besides Unicredit, several big banks revised their prognosis for growth in 2012, while IMF and the authorities could drop their estimates after the evaluation of October.

According to the UniCredit report, the coming back of advanced economies in Europe could keep in 2012 Romania's exports at a growth rhythm of 10% while the elections could feed public consumption, which could increase by 3.9% against 2011. At the same time, although private consumption will be affected by the toughness of loans, public policies would support growth of consumption of 2.2% in 2012 and 2.9% in 2013.

Unicredit estimates as regards investments aim at a growth of 1.7% in 2012 and 3% in 2013 in the context where they could affect modest direct investment ( 2.3% of the GDP in 2012 and 3.8% of the GDP in 2013) as well as the appetite for risk and a slight coming back of constructions. The constructions sector will grow by 2.3% in 2012 and 3.3% in 2013, supported by projects in infrastructure.

According to the Unicredit report, the domestic demand could support the economic growth in the second part of the year, together with agriculture and the basic effect, which would compensate for the slowing down tendency of exports. As a result, Unicredit keeps its estimate of growth for GDP by 1.8% in 2011.

Exports to the EU slowed down in July at 5.8% against the growth of 25% recorded over the first part of the year. On the other hand, the provisional data in agriculture show a very good production which could contribute by 0.5% to the growth of 1.8% of GDP this year. For 2013, the growth prognosis is 3.1%.

Deficit target for next year will be endangered by elections

Unicredit estimates that the deficit target for this year (4.4%) is sure enough,even if the government could make some programmed expenditure for 2012 starting with quarter IV of this year.

The deficit for the first seven months was 2.1% of GDP, in the context where income advanced by 9.4% as a result of tax collection and better collection, while expenditure went up only 0.1% helped by lower salaries and dropping costs with social assistance.

'The good part is that expenditure with investment and co-financing for European projects went up by 29%' Unicredit shows. On the other hand, the targetof 3% for 2012 is very ambitious and it will be threatened by public expenditure with elections. 'We see in 2012 a budgetary deficit of 4.5% of GDP and we hope that IMF will put its foot down to limit it' according to the Unicredit analysis. Even so, the electoral expenses could be limited if the parliamentary elections and the local ones would be kept at the same time.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: unicredit growth could euro

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