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Moody’s: Romania’s default risk in five years will be 8.9%

The probability that the Romanian state gets into default ( payment stoppage) for the following five years is 8.9% after the risk for the next 12 months increased twice almost last week, from 0.76% to 1.35% in the context of worries concering the world economy, according to Moody's.

One year ago, the risk that Romania gets into default for a period of 12 months was 1.29% a report by Moody's said regarding sovereign risks. The agency for financial evaluation calculates the risk for five years in the case of Romania – 8.9%.

Romania's default probability reached last week almost the level of such states as Spain (1.2%), Vietnam ( 1.39%) or Angola ( 1.45%). The risk is measured depending on the CDS indicator – implied EDF ( Expected Default Frequency ) which represents a collective evaluation of the financial markets, taken from the observation of CDS spreads ( Credit Default Swap) adjusted for default generating losses and the price of the risk on the financial markets.

Romania had on Friday a default probability (CDS – implied EDF) of 1.35% against 0.76% one week before and 0.8% on 9 September.

In Central and Eastern Europe, the lowest probability of default for 12 months has Estonia ( 0.24%), followed by the Czech Republic ( 0.26%), Slovakia (0.5%), Slovenia (0.51%), Lithuania ( 0.74%), Poland (0.74%), Latvia ( 0.75%), Bulgaria (1.1%),.Serbia ( 1.13%), Romania, Croatia (1.8%) and Hungary ( 1.85%).

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: default years romania

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