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Raiffeisen: 2.5% economic growth in 2011

Raiffeisen reviewed the estimate about economic growth in Romania for this year from 1.5% to 2.5% due to a third quarter over expectations but considers a 2012 prognosis of 1.8% could be optimistic because of the basic effect in agriculture.

'With a figure substantially better than expectations for the third quarter, the economic growth of 2011 will have to be over our prognosis of 1.5%, even in the case of a poor figure in quarter 4, Mediafax writes.

GDP has already grown by 2.7% in the first 9 months compared to 2010' a Raiffeisen analysis shows.

GDP could grow by 2.5% in 2011, the Raiffeisen analysis shows.Statistics announced that GDP grew by 4.4% in the third quarter, compared to the same period of 2010 and 1.9% compared to the second quarter. Both figures place were placed above market estimates, Raiffeisen notes.

INS will present in early December the second estimate about GDP as well as the factors which influenced its evolution, but Raiffeisen considers the figures are mainly due to agriculture, which had a positive influence over economic growth, both in annual and quarterly terms.

At the same time the local branch of the Austrian bank notes that all sectors (industry, constructions, services) made a positive contribution to GDP in the period analysed. Raiffeisen estimates the GDP increase rate was also backed by consumption, investments and net exports.

The high contribution of agriculture to the increase of GDP in 2011 supposes the risk of a negative contribution in 2012 due to the basic effect, Raiffeisen anticipates.Moreover the bank notices clear signs of a slowing down of economic activity in foreign markets, which could reduce the contribution of exports to GDP in 2012. Consumption and investments continue to evolve at a slow rate. Therefore Romania's economic growth of 1.8% could be optimistic.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: raiffeisen economic quarter growth

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