Stiri	Stiri afaceri	Stiri companii	Evenimente de afaceri

Economic analysts upbeat about Romanian economy in 2008

The economic year 2008 cannot be much worse than 2007, despite a bad start in the financial markets, could be the conclusion of the opinions a few economic analysts told daily Ziarul Financiar.

They imagined the worst scenario for the Romanian economy in the coming period, i.e. a possible slow down in consumption, economic growth up to four percent, compared with 5.8-6 percent in 2007, inflation higher than six percent, the continuation of the depreciation of the the rate of exchange of the Romanian currency RON, a high budget deficit and a current account in continuous 'explosion' as well as stronger reticence of foreign investors.Analysts do not see constructions at a halt, but the industrial production and export could be affected by a possible continuation of RON's depreciation.Head of the research department of Raiffeisen Bank Ionut Dumitru believes that the worst situation for the economy would be a very high budget deficit, prompting rating agencies to downgrade the rating for Romania, and sending a negative message to investors. He thinks Romania's economic growth will continue to be high in 2008, standing at 5-6 percent, with everything depending on the crop.Chief economist of the Romanian Commercial Bank (BCR) Lucian Anghel is still more upbeat, he expects the results in the Romanian economy in 2008 to be better than in 2007. The year 2007 was very bad for farming, he said, Romania's economy depends on the weather, he adds. In point of inflation, he believes the highest risk comes from the RON rate of exchange. Head of the Institute of Economic Forecast of the Romanian Academy Lucian-Liviu Albu says that 'no crisis results from forecasts. The economic trends are still good, although not very good. The risks resulting from inflation, correlated with the depreciation of the RON could cause economic troubles.' The worst can be for the economy to slow down to an economic growth of four percent in 2008, Albu believes.'Even in the most pessimistic scenario, the year 2008 cannot be worse than 2007. There are no special reasons for worry now, compared with last year, when there was drought,' says president of the National Prognosis Commission Ion Ghizdeanu. He adds that an economic slow down could be caused by the slow down in the EU, or by a rise in the price of crude oil. Sursa: http://www.actmedia.ro

Tags: economic percent economy romanian analysts bcr

Articole similare