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Romania, a likely target of speculative attacks in 2008 - EBRD

The immediate impact of the crisis in the global credit market is to be seen in the form of speculative attacks in several countries, Romania among them, Reuters quotes Erik Berglof, chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) as saying.

The Bank's chief economist unveiled a Transition Report in the former Communist bloc states, stressing that the speculative risks have disappeared in the case of the Baltic states and now they focus on Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia and 'the fact that the leu has a floating exchange rate, has eased the way for the speculative investors', the Bursa daily writes on Thursday. The countries that have high current account deficits and at the same time record an accelerated pace of the increase in borrowing are vulnerable to speculative attacks, Berglof stressed. Chairman of the Financial Analysts Association, Dragos Cabat said, in relation to the current situation in Romania that there is no such thing as a speculative attack here now, the more so since the stock exchanges have fallen everywhere in the US, Europe and Asia, not only in Romania. 'The speculative investors have already begun for a few months now to close their positions and they are doing so in a descending order of the risk. Perhaps they began here, because pretty important positions were opened in Romania in the last three years, amid exaggerated optimism and now, from a macroeconomic viewpoint, we have the worst situation in the region. Nevertheless, we are not an isolated case, since the emerging countries on the other continents are in the same situation', Cabat explained. On the other hand, Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, senior economist with ING Bank, believes it is, however, possible that someone may try a future speculative attack on Romania. 'We must underscore that what is happening with the leu now is not a speculative attack. These are consequences of a constant worsening of the investors' feeling coupled with weak macroeconomic bases and this is the reason why the leu is more depreciated than other currencies in the region', he stressed. Sursa: http://www.rompress.ro

Tags: speculative romania attacks ing

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