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Raiffeisen analysts: Annual inflation to hit nine pct peak in July

Romania's annual inflation rate will stay high until July, but it will take to a downward trend after that, assert Raiffeisen Research analysts in a report on the evolution of Romanian economy.

According to the document, a nine pct annual inflation peak is highly likely in July but the rise will only be temporary, followed by a significant decline in August, when the impact of volatile prices (fruit and vegetables) will decrease. For the end of 2008, Raiffeisen Research analysts made an upwards adjustment of their inflation projections from 5.5 pct to 6.0 pct year-on-year. The new projection counts on a more favorable evolution of food prices in a perfectly normal agricultural year. Yet the report warns against the risk of a steep rise in wages and in the non-governmental credit that could feed domestic aggregate demand and boost inflationist pressure, whereas crude and raw materials could have a similar effect. Under such circumstances, Raiffeisen Research analysts do not shut out an annualized inflation rate above six pct, or even 6.5 pct at the end of 2008. As for the exchange rate evolution, Raiffeisen Research experts further expect the leu to appreciate by the end of the year, but say this will mainly happen in the last months of 2008, when international markets might see better times and domestic economy might implicitly witness a stronger boost. Experts anticipate just a marginal appreciation of the local currency in September, specifically an exchange rate of 3.6 lei for one euro. Sursa: http://www.rompress.ro

Tags: inflation raiffeisen annual analysts euro

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