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8.2% growth - slight overheating of economy

The record 8.2% economic growth in Q1 2008 represents a slight overheating of the economy, being above the potential GDP, BNR deputy governor Eugen Dijmarescu told on June 4 the Bucharest-held Central and East-European Financial Forum.

According to the BNR official, not only the construction sector or the automotive industry are the reasons for this growth but also the volume of investments aimed at increasing competitiveness, even of the trend of the oil price tends to be a counterweight. The overheating of the Romanian economy, indicated by the difference between the effective real GDP and the potential GDP, shows a surplus of demand and is an synthetic aggregate indicator of the future inflationary pressures in the economy. In the long term, the accumulated pressures materialize in effective price movements, and the GDP deviation tends to zero, bringing the effective real GDP to the potential level. The GDP estimated for Q1 2008 stands at 86.745bn lei (some 24bn euro), up 8.2% versus Q1 2007, versus a rise of 6% in Q1 2007, according to the data made public by the National Statistics Institute /INS/. The 8.2% economic growth is better than expected by the economic analysts and than the estimates of Economy and Finance Minister Varujan Vosganian. The 6.5% economic growth forecast for 2008 may be revised upwards by some 1% if the farming year is favorable and taking into account the Q1 growth, the economy and finance minister said recently. He estimated 7.5% economic growth in Q1. According to him, Romania produced in Q1 2008 more than it did in entire 2000. The Q1 2008 economic growth was estimated by the economic analysts at 7.4 - 7.8% versus 6% in Q1 2007, boosted mainly by the construction sector, the field with the most accelerated growth. Sursa: http://www.rompress.ro

Tags: growth economic economy overheating euro bnr

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