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The analysts appreciate that BNR will increase the interest rate to 10%

BNR will increase on Thursday the interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 10%, according to analysts’ estimates who anticipate that the bank will stop the strengthening of the monetary policy in the context where they estimate inflation reduction towards the end of this year.

This would be the sixth consecutive increase of the key interest rate, as BNR started the series of interest increases in October last year, the cumulated increase being 2.75 percentage points. Ten out of the 14 analysts questioned by Reuters last week estimated an increase by 0.25% of the key interest rate over this week, but the keeping or reduction of the monetary policy rate towards the end of the year. Only Miroslav Plojhar, analyst with JPMorgan anticipated an increase of the interest rate to 10.55% in June, 10.75% in July and 11% in September, in the context where the economy will be confronted with the danger of overheating. Romania registered over the first three months of the year an economic advance of 8.2% much over the 6.1% rhythm registered during the similar period of 2007 and estimates of 6.4%. The annual rate of inflation was in March at 8.63%, the maximum of the last two years, but was reduced in May to 8.46%. However, many analysts anticipate that inflation will reach a maximum in July, when increases of prices for natural gas and energy will be put into practice. The BNR target for 2008 is of 3.8% +/- one percentage point and for 2009 3.5% +/- a percentage point. BNR revised the inflation prognosis for 2008 from 5.9% to 6% but reduced the estimate for next year from 3.9% to 3.5%. Sursa: http://www.actmedia.ro

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