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Unicredit reviews at 6.8% estimate for growth of Romanian economy in 2008

Unicredit analysts have reviewed their estimate for Romania’s economic growth for this year from 6.5 to 6.8%, especially after the excellent crop this summer, although a harsh BNR monetary policy is expected to have as effect the slowing down of GDP increase in the last quarter.

“We expect a slowing down but not before the last quarter of the year, as a result of tighter domestic monetary conditions and the increase of external financing with significant effects for a country like Romania, based on the savings of foreigners to finance growth,” Unicredit analysts show in a report published on Tuesday.Economists of the financial group also reviewed the estimate for Romania’s economic growth for 2009, from 5.3% to 5.5%.Romania’s GDP would reach 136.6 billion euros in 2008, 158.5 billion in 2009 and 178.7 billion euros in 2010, according to Unicredit estimates. The values correspond to GDP levels of 6,380 euros per capita in 2008, 7,430 euros per capita in 2009 and 8,430 euros/capita in 2010, the year when Romania will reach a level close to the one Croatia had last year (8,600 euros/capita), Poland (8100 euros) or Lithuania (8300 euros) according to Eurostat data. Compared to the previous report, published early this month, Unicredit analysts reviwed other estimates for Romania’s macroeconomic evolution over 2008-2009.Consequently, the annual inflation rate is estimated to reach 6.8% at the end of the year, as against 5.8% the estimates of 2 July. For the year of 2009, economists see an annual inflation of 5% on the rise from the previous estimate of 4%.The average inflation will reach, according to Unicredit estimates 8.2% in 2008 and 5.4% next year, as against the previous estimate of 7.4% this year and 4.6% in 2009.The estimate for Romania’s consolidated budget deficit this year was reviewed to drop to 2.5% of GDP from 3% of GDP in the previous prognosis, data being calculated according to Romanian criteria.For 2009 the Unicredit estimate about the public deficit remained unchanged, economists of the group anticipating a level of 2.9% of GDP according to Romanian standards. Unicredit analysts also maintained their estimate according to which the deficit of Romania’s balance of trade would grow to 14% of GDP in 2008 from 13.9% in 2007, to then get down to 13.5% of GDP in 2009. As for the exchange rate, Unicredit analysts maintained their previous estimates of 3.58 lei/euro at the end of 2008 and a depreciation of 3.66 lei/euro in December 2009. The average exchange rate is estimated at 3.60 lei/euro in December 2009. The average exchange rate is estimated to be 3.60 lei/euro in 2008 and 3.62 lei/euro in 2009 .Unicredit analysts estimate that the interest rate of BNR monetary policy will be at the present level of 10% at the end of the year to get down to 9% in 2009. For 2010 analysts estimate a continuation of the policy of relaxation of the monetary policy, the key interest rate being reduced by BNR to 7.75% in 2010.As for the unemployment rate estimates for 2008 and 2009 remained 4.2%. The quarterly report of Unicredit analysts also includes estimates for 2010, the year when Romania will register a temperate economic growth of 5%, an annual inflation rate of 4% in December and an average one of 4.5% on the background of a continuous depreciation of the monetary policy to a rate of 3.69 lei/euro at the end of the year.The budget deficit is estimated to get down to 2.7% of GDP in 2010, while the current account deficit will be 12.8% of GDP.Unicredit is the largest bank group in Central and Eastern Europe, a region where it is present in 20 countries and has active assets of 120 billion euros. Sursa: http://www.actmedia.ro

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