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Large banks' analysts underestimate economic growth

Large investment banks' analysts underestimate Romania's economic growth, proving an exaggerated caution due to lack of information and because money is made from speculating negative news, stated Andreas Treichl, Erste Bank CEO, majority shareholder of the Romanian Commercial Bank (BCR), in a statement given on Wednesday, taken over by Romania libera daily in its Thursday issue.

Erste Bank representative said that there were analysts who estimated Romania's economic growth at below 6 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for this year, but it rose by more than 8 percent in the first half and, under these conditions, he stressed that the economy cannot show a below 7 percent rise. For next year, Treichl estimates an economic growth of at least 6 percent, the curbing of inflation and wage increases, which also attained a maximum level last year.

'I can recommend 5,000 pages of studies on Romania written by people who think they are economy professors, who at 24 fail to make the difference between right or left. I do not want to say that everything is OK in Romania, but it is nowhere in the world. It should once for all put an end to all these rubbish about Romania, and people should make serious evaluations', said Treichl. But he added that good money is made out of invented worries.

Erste official estimates that the lending will be curbed in Romania as an effect of the restrictions imposed by Romania's National Bank (BNR) up to a moderate growth pace of 30 percent. BCR has built its business strategy for the remainder of the year according to this model.

Yet, the head of the financial group, which is in control of the Romanian bank market, sees the BNR restrictions as a blow given to competitiveness, and characterizes the prevalent attitude towards crediting as already irresponsible. 'There are foreign banks for which Romania is not an important market, there is a big gap between them and their banks in Romania. They do not act responsibly. I see that they pump the money into Romanians' pockets without concern', said Treichl. He described Erste Bank as a steady player, without global expansion dreams, which seeks to stay on the current ground.

Treichl also said that Romanians abroad remittances, this year, will amount at eight billion euros, of which a big portion is transformed into their families at home savings, without being exchanged into lei. BCR is at the end of this money circuit, in Romania, which starts from Italy and Spain, but examines the opportunity to enter operations all over this trajectory. But Treichl did not say if BCR will open branches in Spain or in Italy to develop this business.

Erste is going to observe its engagement of BCR floating, even though it is against the Austrian bank's tradition to list its branches. Moreover, Treichl fails to see an advantage in this floating. He bantered the Romanian stock exchange market where some bank shares multiplied four times their value, whereas their own shares listed in Vienna are following a downward trend.

Sursa: http://www.rompress.ro

Tags: romania percent which bcr erste economic analysts growth treichl bnr

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