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Citigroup: BNR might rise reference rate to 10.50 pc till this year-end

Romania's National Bank might be forced to increase the monetary policy interest rate up to 10.50 percent or even higher, given the inflationary pressures and the elections drawing close, which will affect the fiscal policy, according to a Citigroup analysis, consulted by AGERPRES.

According to Citigroup, the Quarterly Inflation Report, presented by BNR in August, constrains the central bank to take the decision on new reference rate increases. Citigroup warns that there are signals of economy overheating, of higher inflationary pressures and the budgetary spending increase as a result of close elections.

The inflation rate in July stood at 0.69 percent at the level of June, according to data published on Monday by the National Statistics Institute (INS).

On the first seven months of the year, the cumulated rate of inflation stood at 4.28 percent and the monthly average rate at 0.6 percent from 0.3 percent in 2007.

Compared to June 2008, prices for foodstuffs and service tariffs declined by 0.7 percent, respectively 0.3 percent and other commodities prices rose by 2.3 percent.

BNR Governor Mugur Isarescu estimated an annual inflation rate above 9 - 9.1 percent in July, whereas BCR analysts predicted in July an annual inflation rate ranging between 9.2 and 9.5 percent. Starting with August they estimate the launch of a downward trend.

Sursa: http://www.rompress.ro

Tags: percent inflation citigroup bnr bcr

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