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Banking analysts put late year inflation rate at 6 pc

The Romanian analysts are not worried about a potential recession despite the strong risk in the euro zone

Banking analysts are upbeat and hold the prognosis by the National Bank of Romania (BNR) as quite pessimistic, The Money Channel reports. Ionut Dumitru and Nicolae Chidesciuc deem the late July inflation of 9 per cent as not alarming, and believe the late 2008 will see a yearly inflation rate around 6 per cent. ‘I don’t see 9 per cent inflation as alarming. From August, we will see inflation get increasingly lower. We expect a late year annual inflation of 6 per cent. The downtrend will continue into July 2009, at the earliest, given this agricultural year being a favourable one,’ says Nicolae Chidesciuc, a senior economist with ING Bank. ‘I believe we make assumptions different from the national bank’s not because we are necessarily more optimistic. When BNR revised up its latest inflation prognosis for this year to 6.1 per cent, it did so mostly on the back of very high oil prices – an yearly average of USD 140/barrel, which means the price of a barrel of oil should go as high as USD 160 to USD 180. This prognosis appears as very downbeat to me, given the price stands now at USD 115/barrel. The next report on inflation is likely to revise down the prognosis for this year,’ Ionut Dumitru, chief economist at Raiffeisen Bank, said.

The Romanian analysts are not worried about a potential recession hitting Romania, despite the strong risk of recession in the euro zone, as only a negative macroeconomic situation might make Romania feel the heat. ‘I believe that Romanian economy stands a good chance to grow by an average of 6 per cent in the upcoming years,’ legislator Daniel Daianu says. ‘Unfortunately, Romania enters this vicious circle encompassing the whole of Europe where things don’t go well by any means, as Europeans would like to. Romania can no longer remain a happy island in Europe,’ Dan Vardie, an auto analyst, said.

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Tags: inflation rsquo analysts romania ing euro bnr

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