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Analysts: Romania's economic growth 8.5 pt in Q2

According to financial analysts' estimations, Romania's economy advanced by some 8.5 pct in Q2 2008 from the similar period of the year before.

The economists' estimates range between 8 - 8.5 pct, below the figure advanced the other day by Minister of Economy and Finance Varujan Vosganian, who was expecting GDP growth to be 8.6 pct in Q2, on the background of an economic growth of 8.9 pct in the same interval. In the first three months of the year, the GDP advanced 8.2 pct, in what was the most substantial first-quarter advance after 1990. If confirmed, the 8.9 pct growth would be the best quarterly performance over the past years. Even if the end results point to an 8.5 pct advance in economy, this will still be a new four-year-peak. Such a steep growth is unprecedented since end-2004, when the GDP gained over 9 pct.

In a forecast for Business Standard by Raiffeisen Bank Romania chief economist Ionut Dumitru, the cited expert says that 'our projection is that economy advanced 8.5 pct in Q2 and 8.3 - 8.4 pct in the first half of this year. We expect the GDP to grow 7.5 pct over the entire year. We also believe the growth pace will temper down in the last two quarters.'

Credit Europe Bank analysts voiced a similar opinion, stating that they see the GDP growth over April - June 2008 in the range 8 pct to 8.5 pct. Many analysts believe economy could be just as brisk in Q3, but that a slowdown will follow in the last three months of the year. Alpha Bank chief economist Ella Kallai is more reserved, considering that the downside to the good results in agriculture could be a slowdown in construction and industrial activities. 'More than that, in the last three months of the year we could witness a break on consumption due to the enforcement of the new regulation on retail lending published by BNR,' added Kallai.

Romania's GDP increased 8.2 pct in Q1 2008 from the same period of the year before, the National Statistics Institute (INS) said. Services contributed 4 pct, constructions 1.7 pct, industry 1.5 pct, net taxes per product 1 pct to this growth, whereas agriculture had just an insignificant contribution.

 

Sursa: http://www.rompress.ro

Tags: growth economy analysts romanias bnr