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WB credits Romania with chances to avoid recession

Romania's chances to avoid recession in 2009 are higher than its chances to face recession, but the developments depend on the international context and on the measures taken by the future Government, a Government that should nevertheless take into account the pessimistic scenario, Catalin Pauna, senior economist of the World Bank in Romania recently stated, HotNews informs.

‘It is hard to predict what will happen in the following months and in 2009, and the margin for error is high. Romania could register economic growth but it could also register a recession. The situation depends on a multitude of factors such as exogenous factors that are out of our control and depend on the recession and developments in Western European countries, but it also depends on the future Government's capacity to promptly, efficiently and proactively respond to the crisis,' Pauna pointed out during the festivity organized in order to offer an award to CFA Romania. ‘I would say that in any response the margin of error is extremely high. Anything could happen. It is possible for us to register an economic slowdown but also a recession,' Pauna stated.

He opined that the probabilities on avoiding the recession are higher, Mediafax informs. In Pauna's opinion, Romania's advantage in overcoming the effects of the crisis faster than other European states consists in the flexibility of the Romanian market, a flexibility given by the ‘fairly liberal' reforms, in contrast to the European economy which is ‘perceived as rigid,' HotNews informs.

ING remains pessimistic

On the other hand, Romania will miss its target on adopting the Euro in 2014 because the procedures call for a longer period of time, according to Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, senior economist within the ING Bank, Mediafax informs.

‘The year 2014 is not technically feasible,' the ING representative stated on Tuesday. According to the ING Bank representative, Romania could be evaluated in the spring of 2013 or in the autumn of the same year. He considers that ‘2015+' represents a realist target. Ionut Dumitru, chief economist within the Raiffeisen Bank, has stated that the ‘the adoption of the Euro changes the paradigm,' in the context in which several states that did not want to use the single European currency or that considered renouncing its use are now thinking about the exchange rate stability that the ‘Euro umbrella' offers. He pointed out that the adoption of the Euro will be sped up in the following years.

Exports already in recession

The Romanian exports are already in recession, Mihai Ionescu, the Secretary General of the National Agency of Romanian Importers and Exporters (ANEIR), stated. He estimates that by the end of the year Romanian exports within the EU will drop by 10-35 per cent. The Romanian exports outside the EU have already dropped by 50 per cent. The situation is so much the more difficult as the top 10 Romanian exporting companies, led by Arcelor Mittal Galati, Dacia and Petrom, have already announced production cuts. ‘We are in recession when it comes to exports. Yesterday I analyzed with the leadership of the National Bank the export situation at the end of this year and we noticed that in most economic branches the export levels will be 10 to 35 per cent lower than forecast. We already have the figures on the Romanian exports outside the EU registered until November 20. The reports on exports within the European Union are conducted later and it will be earlier next year when we will find out what happened in November. Judging by our data we register an approximately 50 per cent drop in the case of certain exports outside the European Union,' Mihai Ionescu, ANEIR Secretary General said.

 

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Tags: romanian exports already romania european chances lsquo stated recession ing euro

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