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Isarescu: In 2009, Romania will register economic growth between 3 to 6 pc

A drastic drop, towards recession, is a judgment closer to a plausible report than the reports issued by Fitch and Standard & Poor's, BNR Governor added.

Romania will register an economic growth ranging from 3 per cent to 6 per cent in 2009, depending on "how wise is the political component and how accurate the diagnostic is" in terms of the outcomes of the international crisis on the Romanian economy, as BNR Governor, Mugur Isarescu, recently said, Realitatea.net informs. "It is a personal opinion, which I have not yet approached within the Administration Board, when I affirm that economic activity will slow down and there will be economic growth ranging, most likely, between 3 and 6 per cent, highly depending on how wise is the political component and how accurate the diagnostic is", Isarescu said, with reference to the outcomes of the international economic crisis in Romania.

Regarding the estimation of the financial evaluation agency Moody's, according to which Romania registers a lower GDP by 0.3 per cent in 2009, Isarescu spoke about the arguments used by the rating agency as being right and he added that "a drastic drop, towards recession, is a judgment closer to a plausible scenario, rather than Fitch and Standard & Poor's reports, which reduced Romania's rating from investment grade". In addition, Isarescu said that Romania had to adjust its current account deficit as long as it still registers economic growth, considering that "nobody will finance us" at a level of 14 per cent external deficit in GDP.

BNR Governor reminded that an adjustment of the external deficit is unavoidable, "either done by us, or we let others tell us that we have to tighten our belts". Yet, Isarescu estimates a decrease in the foreign direct investments, but in case of those on short term. External funding ceases to be an incentive for the economic growth, and Romania needs to target other funding sources, such as European Investment Bank (BEI) or the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), BNR Governor added. "Talks with the World Bank should also be considered. I am confident that at least 2 per cent of GDP will come from international financial institutions", Isarescu mentioned.

Speaking about inflation evolution in 2009, BNR Governor said that this was not "an optimist one" like in case of other macro-economic indicators, saying that a deepening of the inflation rate, correlated with stimulating demand, will worsen the current account deficit, according to newspaper "Adevarul". "It is also a professional defect that I am not as optimist in case of inflation. I do not suggest general demand stimulation, considering that the outcomes of salary raises will be seen in 2009 and in 2010 and considering that there is already demand in excess", Isarescu said.

AOAR: The lending system, priority number 1 of the future government

Romania's economy is unlikely to pose growth next year unless the old lending system is considered again, this is the unanimous conclusion reached by the representatives of the business environment in our country (AOAR), according to The Money Channel. In their opinion, the lending system should become priority number 1 of the future government.

Mihai Ionescu, General Secretary of the Foreign Trade Promotion Center, affirms that the future government priorities should be lending resumption and an equilibrated budget. "Issue number 1: resuming lending, and I repeat, of the economy, mainly SMEs, the second one, having a equilibrated budget", according to Mihai Ionescu, ANEIR General Secretary.

Regarding the financial crisis, Marius Bostan, Senior Partner VMB, says that our country should take advantage of this. The worldwide international financial crisis could become an opportunity for authorities to externalize the social services from the county councils, and from state, to the private sector.

BNR: Loans to households will reduce dramatically

Banks expect a serious drop in the loan demand, for households, in the last quarter of 2008, mainly the mortgaging ones, Realitatea.net informs.

The drop takes place despite the strong price cut for lands and houses, because of tightened lending terms, based on a survey from National Bank of Romania (BNR). The credit cards will be the only lending products in case of which banks expect slight raise in demand in the last quarter of the year, but much lower than compared to the raise registered over July - September 2008, according to the opinion poll conducted by BNR in relation to lending to non - financial companies and to households. At the same time, the banks estimate a drastic drop in the demand for mortgaging loans and those for personal needs, in spite of reduced prices for houses and estates, which is expected in the last quarter of 2008.

At the same time, the costs incurred by mortgaging credits, apart for those related to interest rates, have advanced within the time period mentioned, once with tightening terms provided by the contract in relation loan maturing deadlines. On the other side, the mortgaged consumer credits registered a drop, against the growth expectations of banks over July - September 2008. At the same time, the increase in the demand for loans for personal needs has outperformed the banks' expectations, in spite of the strong tightening in the lending standards, once with the significant raise of the demand for credit cards, in tune with expectations.

 

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Tags: financial according demand lending which governor romania economic growth bnr isarescu

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