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ANEIR : Exporters could send between 100,000 and 300,000 people to unemployment over the next months

Between 100,000 and 300,000 people who work in the export production could be laid off on a short term or completely over the next months, the chairman of the National Association of Exporters and Importers (ANEIR) Mihai Ionescu said.

"In the production for exports there are almost one million people. Under the conditions where exports got into recession, it is possible that 100,000 - 300,000 people could be laid off, on a short term or completely, over the last quarter of this year and the first half of 2009. Many production units fold their working force, and technical unemployment is a high cost for the factories" Ionescu said, in an interview for NewsIn.

He explained that ANEIR proposed the government the partial compensation of the expenditure, but the government refused. According to his estimate Ionescu relies on the drop to one third of the demand for export in some activity domains, but also on the concrete data about laying off in companies.

The ANEIR chairman says that Romania faces "a recession of exports" brought about by the reduction or slowing down of the economies of the main partners in the European Union. As a consequence, he says that many small and medium companies will stop their activity on January 1, 2009.

Orders dropped by 35% for some domains of export activity"All employers with export activities face a demand deficit of 10 - 30% for Q4 of this year. There are few companies who receive orders, and those with orders have no money to make them, under the conditions where the banks avoid crediting exporters" Ionescu added. As a result, ANEIR has, at present, a dialogue with EximBank, to facilitate the access of exporters to financing from the EximBank.

"We had technical meetings with EximBank, through which we tried to make the bank finance exporters. The bank has a capital of 200 million euros, thus, through the multiplying rule it could offer credits up to 1.6 billion euros. We discussed with president Basescu and I don't consider the EximBank should be capitalized, but they should use their resources" ANEIR chairman said.

He explained that in November, the demand for exporters diminished for all activities by 10 - 35% against previous order, and "for next year there is a major uncertainty as for renewing the contracts", the most affected domains being, at present, the metallurgical and siderurgical industries, textile, auto, chemical, furniture and glass.

The volume of exports to states outside EU dropped by 50% over the first part of November against the last part of October. According to Ionescu, over the first decade of November against the last part of October, the volume of exports of Romania to states outside the EU dropped by 50%. Against the same period of November 2007, the drop was of 16%.

As for imports from outside the EU, the drop in volume over the first decade of November against the last part of October was more drastic, of 53%. By comparison to the similar period of last year, the volume for this part of imports dropped by 13%. Between January - September 2008, the commercial deficit (FOB/FOB) - the main source which feed the external imbalance - accentuated its rhythm of growth at 11.7% against the similar period of 2007, reaching 13.66 billion euros, according to BNR data.

In spite of all this, Ionescu says that there are chances of reducing the deficit of current account this year against the level of 14% of GDP in 2007, in the case where consumption does not accelerate excessively during winter celebrations.

 

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.ro

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