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Merrill Lynch: Recession will “push� investors towards Romania

The American bank is optimistically saying that Romania will register a real GDP growth, expected to be 3.9 pc next year and 4.5 pc in 2010.

The global recession will "push" investors towards those countries which are to register a real advance of their Gross Domestic Product, such as Romania is, where the economic growth advances from 3.9 per cent next year to 4.5 per cent in 2010, based on a report of the American bank Merrill Lynch.

In 2008, Romania will pose 8.5 per cent economic growth, according to the estimations issued by Merrill Lynch, it is outlined in the report sent to Mediafax.

"Considering that many states experience recession, investors will hasten towards those countries able to register economic growth. The lowest growth rates are expected in USA, Spain, Turkey, Taiwan, Italy and Belgium. The economies to pose the highest rates are Qatar, China, India, Peru, Nigeria, Panama, Egypt, Indonesia, Slovakia and Romania", the report indicates.

At the same time, Merrill Lynch expects inflation in Romania to reduce from 8.1 per cent in 2008 to 5.5 per cent in 2009 and to 4.7 per cent in 2010. In October, the annualized inflation in Romania was 7.39 per cent, considering the monetary policy interest rate at 10.25 per cent. Merrill Lynch analysts estimate that the National Bank of Romania will reduce the monetary policy interest down to 8.75 per cent in 2009 and they will preserve this level throughout 2010.

"There is need for massive market stimulation policies. At global level, there will be cuts in the monetary policy rates by another 86 points until end of 2009. The issue is related to the fiscal relaxation. Budgetary deficits will advance significantly in all countries. The emerging countries will benefit from investments in infrastructure, while the developed countries will cut interests even more," according to Merrill Lynch analysts. They also warn that within the current context, there is likelihood for any abrupt change in policies or terms to induce a major effect on national currencies.

"The highest likelihood for our scenario is the possibility for the economic advance and the capital flows to recover faster than anticipated. Also, there is a risk for the initiatives of the international financing institutions to fail in the attempt to support the emerging states, which would affect the currencies of the respective countries," based on the quoted report.

The analysts conclude that it is impossible to establish, for the time being, how the economic growth stimulation policies should be adjusted and the time period during which they should be implemented.

 

Sursa: http://www.nineoclock.ro

Tags: romania growth economic countries towards lynch recession investors merrill

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