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WB: Romania’s economic growth to slow down to 3.2 pc in 2009

Rapid credit expansion and pay raises increased Central Europe's vulnerability.

Romania's economic growth will diminish from 8.6 per cent in 2008 to 3.2 per cent next year, according to the World Bank's 2009 Global Economic Perspective report, Mediafax informs. In 2010 however, economic growth will step up to 5.8 per cent. WB experts predict the current account deficit will take a significant dip, from 14.1 per cent GD in 2007 to 15.5 per cent GDP this year. Nonetheless, WB analysts estimate the current account deficit will be cut down to 8.6 per cent GDP next year and 7.4 per cent GDP in 2010. BM experts' forecast is more downbeat than the estimates by the National Commission of Prognosis (CNP) for 2008-2010, both with respect to economic growth and the current account deficit. According to the autumn prognosis of CNP, Romanian economic will have a growth pace of 9.1 per cent in 2008, to fall to 6 per cent in 2009, and speed up to 6.3 per cent in 2010. In the WB's opinion, Europe and Asia will see their economic growth dwindle from 7.1 per cent in 2007, to 5.3 per cent in 2008, although economic activity ‘resisted remarkably well' in the first half of this year when the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) half rose to 8.8 per cent in Romania, 6 per cent in Poland and 5.8 per cent in Turkey, which relieved on strong demand on local markets and high petrol prices, which produced gains for the incomes of the hydrocarbon exporters. Most of the countries in the region faced a sharp rise in demand on the local market, although net trade remained a negative factor for economic growth. The fast expansion of the crediting sector and higher salaries made the region vulnerable to worsened funding conditions on the foreign front too. And yet, economic in Europe and Central Asia will step up to 5 per cent in 2010 amid stabilisation of the crediting market, lower inflationist pressure and resumed foreign market growth.

Isarescu counts on a positive year

The economic growth will reach 8 per cent this year, after it had reached 8 - 9 per cent in January-September, the governor of the National Bank of Romania, Mugur Isarescu, said yesterday, quoted by Agerpres. "In 2009, the economic growth will be 3 - 6 per cent, but we do not have an easing of the inflationary pressures," BNR governor said. Mugur Isarescu also declared that the current account deficit will have a slight fall at the end of this year, but the tendency to decrease will speed up in the first half of 2009. "The foreign deficit is not acceptable any longer, this being the major problem of Romania. The current account deficit had reached two thirds of Romania's GDP in 2000 when I was a minister," BNR governor said. The current account deficit increased 14.8 per cent in January-September 2008, vs. the same period of 2007, and amounted to EUR 12.704 bln. On another hand, according to the governor of the central bank, the future Government will need to be more careful about how the budget is built. "Any modification of a main tax is dilemmatic, we should chiefly look within the budget, at the way in which it is built," BNR governor stressed. The general consolidated budget for the next year is built on a deficit of 2 per cent of GDP, an economic growth of 6 per cent, and an exchange rate of RON 3.6/ EUR 1.

 

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Tags: growth economic governor deficit current account romania bnr

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