Stiri	Stiri afaceri	Stiri companii	Evenimente de afaceri

Likely changes in money policy

Amid a macroeconomic picture thwarted by the international crisis fallout, Romania's Central Bank (BNR) Board of Governors meet on Jan 6 and discuss a possible move to change its monetary policy, interest rate and the minimum compulsory reserve banks have to set up, the Ziarul Financiar informs on Monday.

BNR expects a rapid industrial output decline, rising unemployment rate, dwindling budgetary revenues and speedy RON decline.

In front of the Western recession, the main national banks of Central Europe ended 2008 with interest rate cuts in a bid to boost lending and put the brake on economic downturn.

Central bankers in the region are no longer trying to protect national currencies through high interest rates, agreeing to significant declines, the Ziarul Financiar says on.

The National Bank of Romania now has the highest interest rate in the EU, at 10.25 percent, despite inflation having dropped to 6.74 percent in Nov.

Romanian banking analysts believe the central bank will not rush to cut the key interest rate as long as this is again out of sync with the market, where interest rates are considerably higher (13-14 percent), so that it no longer has much relevance.

Banca Comerciala Romana (BCR) expects the rate to stay at 10.25 percent in March, too, with the rate to go down to 9.5 percent no sooner than June and end the year at 8.5 percent. RBS, too, believes the interest rate will stand at 8.5 percent, while ING sees it at 9 percent. Raiffeisen Bank analysts anticipate a first cut in March, when the interest rate would go down to 10 percent, staying at this level through Sept, the same daily reads on.

It remains to be seen how the BNR reacts to economic growth deterioration signals and worsening forecast for 2009, indicating a GDP increase of only 1-3 percent, from over 8 percent in 2008, the Ziarul Financiar writes.

Analysts believe there are more chances for a new reduction in the level of minimum compulsory RON reserve, to boost cash available for loans, on Jan 6.

As regards the minimum foreign currency reserves, a cut would also mean a drop in BNR's foreign currency reserves, an undesirable situation given the depreciation pressure the Romanian currency is under.

Last but not least, NBR's Board of Governors could reassess the conditions for retail loan granting, after the amount of RON loans for consumers in Nov posted the second monthly nominal drop in a row, the Ziarul Financiar concludes.

 

Sursa: http://www.rompress.ro

Tags: percent interest bnr ing bcr rbs